Informative Prior Elicitation from Historical Individual Patient Data
Shirin Golchi · Mar 20, 2020
Date: 2020-03-20
Time: 15:30-16:30
Location: BURNSIDE 1205
Abstract:
Historical data from previous studies may be utilized to strengthen statistical inference. Under the Bayesian framework incorporation of information obtained from any source other than the current data is facilitated through construction of an informative prior. The existing methodology for defining an informative prior based on historical data relies on measuring similarity to the current data at the study level that can result in discarding useful individual patient data (IPD). In this talk I present a family of priors that utilize IPD to strengthen statistical inference. IPD-based priors can be obtained as a weighted likelihood of the historical data where each individual’s weight is a function of their distance to the current study population. It is demonstrated that the proposed prior construction approach can considerably improve estimation accuracy and precision in compare with existing methods.