/tags/2025-fall/index.xml 2025 Fall - McGill Statistics Seminars

2025 Fall

  • K-contact Distance for Noisy Nonhomogeneous Spatial Point Data and Application to Repeating Fast Radio Burst Sources

    Amanda M. Cook · Oct 10, 2025

    Date: 2025-10-10

    Time: 15:30-16:30 (Montreal time)

    Location: In person, Burnside 1104

    https://mcgill.zoom.us/j/81986712072

    Meeting ID: 819 8671 2072

    Passcode: None

    Abstract:

    In this talk, I’ll introduce an approach to analyze nonhomogeneous Poisson processes (NHPP) observed with noise which focuses on previously unstudied second-order characteristics of the noisy process. Utilizing a hierarchical Bayesian model with noisy data, we first estimate hyperparameters governing a physically motivated NHPP intensity. Leveraging the posterior distribution, we then infer the probability of detecting a certain number of events within a given radius, the $k$-contact distance. This methodology is demonstrated by its motivating application: observations of fast radio bursts (FRBs) detected by the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment’s FRB Project (CHIME/FRB). The approach allows us to identify repeating FRB sources by computing the probability of observing $k$ physically independent sources within some radius in the detection domain, or the probability of coincidence ($P_C$). Applied, the new methodology improves the repeater detection $P_C$, in 86% of cases when applied to the largest sample of previously classified observations, with a median improvement factor (existing metric over $P_C$ from our methodology) of ~ 3000. Throughout the talk, I will provide the necessary astrophysical context to motivate the application and highlight some of the other active statistical problems in FRB science.

  • Convergence Guarantees for Adversarially Robust Classifiers

    Rachel Morris · Oct 3, 2025

    Date: 2025-10-03

    Time: 15:30-16:30 (Montreal time)

    Location: In person, Burnside 1104

    https://mcgill.zoom.us/j/82469112499

    Meeting ID: 824 6911 2499

    Passcode: None

    Abstract:

    Neural networks can be trained to classify images and achieve high levels of accuracy. However, researchers have discovered that well-targeted perturbations of an image can completely fool a trained classifier, even in cases where the modified image is visually indistinguishable from the original. This has sparked many new approaches to classification which include an adversary in the training process: such an adversary can improve robustness and generalization properties at the cost of decreased accuracy and increased training time. In this presentation, I will explore the connection between a certain class of adversarial training problems and the Bayes classification problem for binary classification. In particular, robustness can be encouraged by adding a regularizing nonlocal perimeter term, providing a strong connection to classical studies of perimeter. Borrowing tools from geometric measure theory, I will show the Hausdorff convergence of adversarially robust classifiers to Bayes classifiers as the strength of adversary decreases to 0. In this way, the theoretical results discussed in the presentation provide a rigorous comparison with the standard Bayes classification problem.

  • Sparse Causal Learning: Challenges and Opportunities

    Dingke Tang · Sep 26, 2025

    Date: 2025-09-26

    Time: 15:30-16:30 (Montreal time)

    Location: In person, Burnside 1104

    https://mcgill.zoom.us/j/81200178578

    Meeting ID: 812 0017 8578

    Passcode: None

    Abstract:

    In many observational studies, researchers are often interested in studying the effects of multiple exposures on a single outcome. Standard approaches for high-dimensional data such as the lasso assume the associations between the exposures and the outcome are sparse. These methods, however, do not estimate the causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In this paper, we consider an alternative approach that assumes the causal effects in view are sparse. We show that with sparse causation, the causal effects are identifiable even with unmeasured confounding. At the core of our proposal is a novel device, called the synthetic instrument, that in contrast to standard instrumental variables, can be constructed using the observed exposures directly. We show that under linear structural equation models, the problem of causal effect estimation can be formulated as an l0-penalization problem and hence can be solved efficiently using off-the-shelf software. Simulations show that our approach outperforms state-of-art methods in both low-dimensional and high-dimensional settings. We further illustrate our method using a mouse obesity dataset.

  • Optimal vintage factor analysis with deflation varimax

    Xin Bing · Sep 19, 2025

    Date: 2025-09-19

    Time: 15:30-16:30 (Montreal time)

    Location: In person, Burnside 1104

    https://mcgill.zoom.us/j/83914219181

    Meeting ID: 839 1421 9181

    Passcode: None

    Abstract:

    Vintage factor analysis is one important type of factor analysis that aims to first find a low-dimensional representation of the original data, and then to seek a rotation such that the rotated low-dimensional representation is scientifically meaningful. The most widely used vintage factor analysis is the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) followed by the varimax rotation. Despite its popularity, little theoretical guarantee can be provided to date mainly because varimax rotation requires to solve a non-convex optimization over the set of orthogonal matrices.

  • Proper Correlation Coefficients for Nominal Random Variables

    Lukas Wermuth · Sep 12, 2025

    Date: 2025-09-12

    Time: 15:30-16:30 (Montreal time)

    Location: In person, Burnside 1104

    https://mcgill.zoom.us/j/88021402798

    Meeting ID: 880 2140 2798

    Passcode: None

    Abstract:

    This work develops an intuitive concept of perfect dependence between two variables of which at least one has a nominal scale that is attainable for all marginal distributions and proposes a set of dependence measures that are 1 if and only if this perfect dependence is satisfied. The advantages of these dependence measures relative to classical dependence measures like contingency coefficients, Goodman-Kruskal’s lambda and tau and the so-called uncertainty coefficient are twofold. Firstly, they are defined if one of the variables is real-valued and exhibits continuities. Secondly, they satisfy the property of attainability. That is, they can take all values in the interval [0,1] irrespective of the marginals involved. Both properties are not shared by the classical dependence measures which need two discrete marginal distributions and can in some situations yield values close to 0 even though the dependence is strong or even perfect. Additionally, this work provide a consistent estimator for one of the new dependence measures together with its asymptotic distribution under independence as well as in the general case. This allows to construct confidence intervals and an independence test, whose finite sample performance is subsequently examine in a simulation study. Finally, we illustrate the use of the new dependence measure in two applications on the dependence between the variables country and income or country and religion, respectively.